Predicting Diffusion Reach Probabilities via Representation Learning on Social Networks

Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number of cascades and one usually has access only to a small portion of all available cascades. In this work, we addressed the problem of estimating diffusion reach probabilities given only a limited number of cascades and partial information about underlying network structure. Our proposed strategy employs node representation learning to generate and feed node embeddings into machine learning algorithms to create models that predict diffusion reach probabilities. We provide experimental analysis using synthetically generated cascades on two real-world social networks. Results show that proposed method is superior to using values calculated from available cascades when the portion of cascades is small

Artificial intelligence research strategy of the United States: critical assessment and policy recommendations

The foundations of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a field whose applications are of great use and concern for society, can be traced back to the early years of the second half of the 20th century. Since then, the field has seen increased research output and funding cycles followed by setbacks. The new millennium has seen unprecedented interest in AI progress and expectations with significant financial investments from the public and private sectors. However, the continual acceleration of AI capabilities and real-world applications is not guaranteed. Mainly, accountability of AI systems in the context of the interplay between AI and the broader society is essential for adopting AI systems via the trust placed in them. Continual progress in AI research and development (R&D) can help tackle humanity's most significant challenges to improve social good. The authors of this paper suggest that the careful design of forward-looking research policies serves a crucial function in avoiding potential future setbacks in AI research, development, and use. The United States (US) has kept its leading role in R&D, mainly shaping the global trends in the field. Accordingly, this paper presents a critical assessment of the US National AI R&D Strategic Plan and prescribes six recommendations to improve future research strategies in the US and around the globe